One way to predict a goal for of an upcoming drive is by looking at the results of past drives.
The obvious numbers are the total dollars given or total number of individual contributions that were made during an entire drive.
But those big numbers are just one measure of success. There are hundreds more numbers that are just - if not even more - important than the big goal. These are the small numbers that accrue during each hour of a drive. The number of calls per hour, and the number of dollars raised per hour.
It is possible to predict drive response on a day-by-day and hour-by-hour basis. Those predictions are made based on accurate and complete documentation of hour-by-hour results from past membership drives, along with a short description of any accelerator used in that hour.
So how does one go about making sense of all the numbers?
A spreadsheet. Grab all the data you can lay your hands on from your last one or two drives and enter that data into a spreadsheet.
The three pages of my spreadsheet reflect three areas- Your last drive history, a prediction for the upcoming drive, and progress on your current drive. Some cells are for data entry. Others with formulas have a green tint.
The big hourly block in the lower half of all three spreadsheets is where the number of contributions you get during that hour are inserted. That area is where most of the work is done. I've found it easier to deal in contribution numbers versus dollars collected. When you document a past drive, put the hourly numbers in first. You'll better see how the spreadsheet functions then.
In the upper part of the sheet you'll notice that the spreadsheet puts the number of gifts to work by multiplying it by your expected average gift. And when you enter another day's worth of gifts, the addition happens automatically as well. The weekly results tabulate on the right side of the sheet.
When you're done with entering the past data, use what you've learned to start filling in your hourly predictions in your upcoming drive planner.
I usually spend an hour or or two in planning my upcoming drive by juggling the numbers and assessing if the overall goal is achievable in the number of days given.
In tracking drives, I've found that if a drive has raised 1/2 of its dollar goal by the 2/3rds point of the drive I'm on track. And if the drive has raised 2/3rds of its dollar goal by the 3/4 point of the drive, the end is in reach. That 2/3rds dollar mark is also a great place to begin the countdown to the goal.
To make those mileposts, you might have to add some kind of big accelerator at the beginning of the drive. Or if a larger average gift is needed to meet your dollar goal, you can adjust the number of times you ask for higher gifts in your PledgeDriver scripting tool.
With that in hand, you're ready to go to work on your live drive. Enter the numbers on the current drive progress sheet as they happen, and you'll see in real time if you're ahead of your plan, meeting your plan, or falling behind.
Spreadsheets only make complete sense to those who write them. So if you'd like to use mine, give me a call and I can walk you through. Or start fresh with a design of your own.
Once you've entered data, you can be much more positive about your chances for success.
Good luck in your next drive!
Roger Gomoll
Coach. On-air talent training. Pledge Consultant
651-233 6178